Much Ado About Nothing

Governor Palin's role in this election has been interesting. Most people believe that McCain chose her as his running mate for two reasons: to unite the Republican base and recruit female voters. Governor Palin has comforted the Republican base, but has not unified them behind McCain. Only 36% of McCain backers are enthusiastic about him, as opposed to 61% of Obama backers being enthusiastic about their candidate. Palin, also, has not been very successful recruiting women to vote for McCain - Obama now leads McCain by 17 points among likely female voters, 55%-38%. Joe Biden and Barack Obama are both viewed favorably by women, 51% to 27% for Biden and 60% to 33% for Obama. Governor Palin has a 45% favorable rating and a 47% unfavorable rating among women and John McCain's is 54% favorable and 38% unfavorable. Palin does rate higher with men (maybe that's why she kept winking last night), but that is not the part of the electorate that will more than likely decide this election.

Some claim the same stances that give Governor Palin traction with the Republicans cause her to lose points with women - 69% of women disagree with her on global warming, 65% disagree with her opposing abortion in all cases, and 52% disagree with her support of the war in Iraq. Others, like Brenda Luscombe, think it could be more simple than that. Luscombe wrote this: "What the Democrats learned during the primaries and the Republicans might now be finding out the hard way, I learned at my very academic, well-regarded all-girls high school: that is never to discount the ability of women to open a robust, committed, well-thought-out vat of hatred for another girl." Luscombe goes on to write that Palin does not pass the three-part exam of if women will like her. Here's the criteria:

1. She's too pretty. This is very bad news. At school, pretty girls tend to be liked only by other pretty girls. The rest of us, whose looks hover somewhere around underwhelming, resent them and whisper archly of their "unearned attention." So, if everyone calls your candidate "hot," you're in a whole mess of trouble. If the Pakistani head-of-state more or less hits on her, well, yes, she'll get a sympathy vote, but we're in Dukakis-in-the-tank territory. It's an admiration vaporizer. (Of course a candidate can't be too ugly, or it will scare the men, who are clearly shallow as a gender.)

2. She's too confident. This also bodes ill. Women have self-esteem issues. But they also have other-women's-esteem issues. As almost any woman — from the head of the Budgerigar Breeders association to Queen Elizabeth — can attest, it's almost impossible to get confidence right. Too timid and you're a pushover. Too self-aggrandizing and you're a bad word unless it's about a dog, or Project Runway's Kenley. Or Michelle, my best friend until 9th grade, after she won that debating prize and got cocky.

3. She could embarrass us. History is not on Palin's side. Every time a woman gets a plum job, be she Hewlett-Packard's ex-boss, Carly Fiorina, or CBS's Katie Couric, there's always that whispery fear that people will think she got the job just because she's a woman. So if things don't go well — and a couple of YouTube clips have suggested that they're certainly not going well for Palin — women are the first to turn on her for making it harder for the rest of us to louse up at work.

I am not an expert about any of this because I am a man, but my wife confirms a lot of these points for normal female relationships. They may nor may not transfer to politics, but I recall with certainty that a lot of women did not vote for Walter Mondale in 1984 because he selected Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate and women felt like they were being pandered to and degraded by this overtly political ploy.

The good news is that the 12% of the electorate that both parties refer to as Wal-Mart moms seem to change their opinion with each new bit of information. Maybe that is why Republicans were so excited with Palin's "performance," as John McCain so eloquently labeled it today in Pueblo, CO. Republican pundits like Ed Rollins and Pat Buchanan claimed victory for Palin last night despite that the polls conducted during and after the debate contradict that opinion. Here are five poll results:

• CBS News poll - 46% claim Biden won, 21% claim Palin won, 33% claim it was a tie.
• CNN poll - 51% claim Biden won, 36% claim Palin won.
• Fox News poll - 61% claim Biden won, 39% claim Palin won.
• Anchorage, Alaska Daily News poll - 52% claim Biden won, 42% claim Palin won.
• Wall Street Journal poll - 66% claim Biden won, 29% claim Palin won.

Apparently, the Republicans viewed this interaction between the candidates like a Vegas sports book views college football games. For example, Oklahoma is favored by 25 points over Baylor this weekend. If Baylor loses by 24 points, Baylor wins in Vegas but they didn't truly win the game. Similarly, Palin covered the spread last night, but she didn't really win the game.

CBS News also tracked if voters made a decision based on the debate, their opinions of the candidates, their opinion of the candidates' knowledge, their opinions of the candidates' preparedness for the job of vice president, and their opinions on whether each candidate would be an effective president.

• 18% of uncommitted voters say they will now vote for the Obama/Biden ticket, while 10% say they will now vote for the McCain/Palin ticket and 71% said they were still uncommitted.
• 55% said that their opinion of Palin improved, 14% said their opinion worsened and 30% said their opinion didn't change.
• 53% said that their opinion of Biden improved, 5% said their opinion worsened and 42% siad their opinion did not change.
• 66% said they thought Palin was knowledgeable, up from 43% before the debate.
• 98% said they thought Biden was knowledgeable.
• 55% said they thought Palin was prepared for the role of vice president, up from 39% before the debate.
• 97% said they thought Biden was prepared for the role of vice president, up from 81% before the debate.
• 44% think that Palin could be an effective president, up from 35% before the debate.
• 100% think that Biden could be an effective president.
• The words used to describe Palin after the debate were "outspoken," "determined" and "on the ball."
• The words used to describe Biden after the debate were "knowledgeable," "experienced" and "articulate."

What does all this mean? In my opinion, it truly means nothing in the grand scheme of the presidential election. This debate was nothing more than stump speeches framed to answer questions (or not, in the case of Palin). Biden proved that he is a worthy replacement if anything were to happen to Obama and Palin proved that she is not as clueless as she recently portrayed herself. Biden didn't sound mean or condescending and he also did not demean her by correcting her obvious, though limited, gaffes. Palin also did not attempt to correct Biden's error when he confused Syria and Hizballah while talking about Lebanon, though one wonders if she even knew he made a mistake. Simply put, they both focused their attacks on the presidential candidates and came out unscathed.

Digging a little deeper though, Senator Biden accomplished several things during the debate. First, he proved knowledgeable about the issues. Second, he inextricably linked McCain to the Bush Administration. Third, he demolished McCain's self-imposed maverick moniker by continually demonstrating McCain's propensity for voting against things that matter in people's lives. Finally, he showed that he was just as real as the "hockey mom" and knew the hardships facing single parents when he spoke honestly and emotionally about the critical injuries suffered by his sons and the death of his wife and one-year-old daughter in a car accident. It was the most real moment of the night.

I didn't think that any of the characterizations that Palin made about Obama stuck quite as well as those Biden made about McCain because Biden did a better job of defending his candidate than Governor Palin did. However, I am biased and cannot pretend to comprehend what people who believe Barack Obama is a Muslim, like this woman: http://break.com/index/redneck-woman-rails-on-obama.html, thought. What Palin did accomplish was rescuing her reputation. Her charm and folksy demeanor made her likeable and she did seem to have knowledge about certain topics. Her appeal is that she seems just like the average American (who wasn't offended by the label "Joe Six Pack") and she understands the issues and problems we face. She can build on her "performance" now that she has a passport and a recognizable name. The work that she puts in over the next few years will determine her place in history. She needs to:

• Become better versed in foreign policy. General McKiernan is stationed in Afghanistan, not General McClellan and Iran is nowhere close to gaining nuclear deployment capability.
• Gain an understanding of each branch of the government. The vice president is part of the executive branch, not the legislative branch.
• Define her positions with concrete examples and learn to answer follow-up questions. This is where she has stumbled over and over again. She knows the canned answer, but she doesn't know why she is supporting the canned answer. For instance, why is a windfall tax on oil good for Alaska but not the United States? or how do you define victory in Iraq?

Joe Klein wrote "What she [Governor Palin] did show was some folksy charm and some energy—qualities that might get her selected for Dancing With the Stars, if not Jeopardy. But that's not enough to change the trajectory of this race, especially since nothing that was said in this debate will be remembered, or remarked upon, a week from now." I concur with that statement, but I do think Palin set herself up nicely for a major role in American politics in the near future if she can tweak her reputation and win over the women.